Decision-making tools in crisis
Deciding under uncertainty
Duration: 3 hours
The ever-so-popular concept of a VUCA world (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity) had an unfortunate, yet perfect illustration withy the 2020 global pandemic. Deciding differs considerably when we do not know the range of possible outcomes, the factors and probabilities associated with each, and when we cannot think of an analogous situation. Yet, managers need to make decisions in conditions of ever-increasing uncertainty and, usually, under time pressure. This module provides a counterintuitive approach: instead of fighting fire with fire, we should combat complexity with simple solutions.
Methods. Short case studies.
Outcomes. Participants will become familiar with one-cue decision-making, scenario planning, and case-based decision analysis.